Considering autonomous governance in Dankalia

Ahmed Y. Mohamed[1]

Introduction

The tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia regarding access to the Red Sea were brought to the forefront by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s address to the Ethiopian parliament in October 2023.[2] In his speech, Prime Minister Abiy asserted Ethiopia’s “natural” rights to access the Red Sea waters in neighboring countries, prompting responses from Somalia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, who declared their territorial integrity non-negotiable in reaction to Ethiopia’s comments.

Ethiopia’s challenges intensified as it sought access to another port, this time in Somaliland, an autonomous region within Somalia. A recent agreement[3] signed on January 1st, 2024, between Somaliland and Ethiopia involves the leasing of over 20 kilometers of Berbera Port City to Ethiopia. The agreement also includes acknowledgment of the potential for Somaliland to pursue independence in the future. This has further exacerbated regional tensions surrounding Ethiopia’s efforts to secure a port from its neighboring countries.

Ethiopia’s pursuit of port access as a landlocked nation is significant in Eritrea, which gained independence from Ethiopia in 1991 after a long struggle. After Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia lost access to its only port when it had a population of 50 million, compared to the current population of 120 million.[4] The recent strained relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have raised concerns about the potential for renewed regional conflict. Ethiopia’s aggressive demand for sea access, Eritrea’s resentment for being sidelined in Pretoria, and the signed Cessation of Hostilities Agreement between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front are all contributing factors. Additionally, there are internal rebellions in Amhara and Oromia as well as generalized insecurity across the country, which Ethiopia quietly blames on Eritrea’s involvement.

This article will delve into the “Afar Factor” one of the key arguments presented by Prime Minister Abiy to justify Ethiopia’s interest in the Red Sea. It will also consider why granting the Afar people “Special Status” could be a viable political strategy for the region and explore the role Eritrea should play regarding Afar grievances in the country. Read more

[1] Ahmed Y. Mohamed leads the Eritrean Afar National Congress, a political group that represents exiled indigenous Eritrean Afar people. The organization advocates for self-governance and autonomy for the indigenous Afar people in Dankalia, Eritrea, who have faced marginalization, persecution, and ethnic cleansing under the current government. https://dankalia.org/

[2] Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a televised program held with members of the country’s parliament on Sunday, according to the state Ethiopian News Agency (ENA). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMhN-aAsiV0

[3] Prime Minister@AbiyAhmedAli and the President of Somaliland Muse Bihe Abdi have signed a historic Memorandum of Understanding in Addis Ababa. https://twitter.com/PMEthiopia/status/1741828595457143004/photo/1

[4] With about 123 million people (2022), Ethiopia is the second most populous nation in Africa after Nigeria, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ethiopia/overview